Three Questions for Jacob Misiorowski's Second Season
The Promise of a Rising Star: Can Misiorowski Build on His Stellar Debut?
On Tuesday, the baseball world will witness the highly anticipated spring debut of Jacob Misiorowski, a pitcher who made an instant impact in his first season with the Brewers. With the departure of Freddy Peralta, Misiorowski is now undoubtedly the star of the Brewers' rotation. But can he live up to the hype and build on his impressive debut?
Misiorowski's first season was nothing short of extraordinary. He began his career with 11 no-hit innings and carried a perfect game into the seventh inning of his season start. This performance earned him an All-Star selection after just five major league starts, a feat that speaks volumes about his talent and potential. However, as the season progressed, Misiorowski faced challenges, including a left tibia contusion that sidelined him for a period. Despite this setback, his season ended on a high note, with a strong postseason run that put him back in the spotlight.
As he enters his second season, the bar is set high. While early projections are positive, they also present a unique challenge. ZiPS, a predictive system, forecasts Misiorowski to pitch 116 2/3 innings in 2026, with a 3.86 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 10.93 K/9, and 3.93 BB/9. This would be a slight dip in innings and strikeouts from his debut, but an improvement in walk rate, aligning with his minor league development. However, it may not be realistic to expect another All-Star year, and he might not even be the top pitcher in the Brewers' rotation.
Innings Management: How Will Misiorowski Handle the Jump in Innings?
Misiorowski's ability to manage his innings is a critical question for his second season. In 2025, he saw a significant increase in innings, pitching 141 1/3 innings between the regular season and postseason, a 45% increase from 2024. Most teams use a 20% to 25% increase as a general rule, but Misiorowski's case is unique. After a short IL stint, he struggled initially upon his return, posting a 6.41 ERA and 4.00 FIP in his first six starts. However, he rebounded strongly in his final two starts and was included on the postseason roster, where he shined, allowing just two earned runs in three postseason starts, covering 12 innings.
It's unlikely that the Brewers will increase his innings by 45% again in 2026, but early projections suggest a slight bump. ZiPS forecasts 116 2/3 innings, while other projections on FanGraphs put him between 134 and 139 innings. The question is, can Misiorowski handle this increased workload? While he had an offseason to rest, the major increase in innings is a concern. Will he be fully recovered and able to pitch a similar number of innings for another year?
Learning from the Past: How Have Other Brewers Fared in Their Second Seasons?
To understand Misiorowski's potential, it's essential to look at how other Brewers have performed in their second seasons. While each pitcher's journey is unique, the Brewers have a strong track record, and their development staff can provide valuable insights.
Brandon Woodruff: Woodruff made his debut in 2017, starting seven games and posting a 4.81 ERA. In 2018, he served in a bullpen role but made a few starts, earning a postseason roster spot. His regular season was strong, with a 3.61 ERA, and he made four postseason appearances, two of them starts.
Freddy Peralta: Peralta made his debut in 2018, helping fill the Brewers' rotation. In 2019, he spent most of the season in the bullpen after early struggles, improving his ERA and FIP while maintaining high strikeout and walk rates.
Corbin Burnes: Burnes started strong in 2018 but struggled in his second season, recording a 10.70 ERA in four starts. He returned to the bullpen in 2019 and showed improvement in his third season.
Aaron Ashby: Ashby made his debut in 2021 and settled into the rotation by the end of the year. The Brewers signed him to a five-year extension after his second season, despite some inconsistent results.
The Road Ahead: What Does the Future Hold for Misiorowski?
As Misiorowski embarks on his second season, the Brewers' track record suggests he's likely due for more growth. While the challenges are clear, his talent and potential are undeniable. The question remains: can he build on his stellar debut and establish himself as a premier pitcher in the league?
The answers to these questions will shape Misiorowski's future and the Brewers' success. As the season unfolds, we'll witness the journey of a rising star, and the baseball world will be watching with anticipation. Will Misiorowski live up to the hype? The stage is set, and the story is about to unfold.
