This weekend’s box office is shaping up to be a thrilling showdown, with one film poised to finally dethrone the unstoppable Avatar: Fire and Ash after its six-week reign. But here’s where it gets exciting: Send Help, a gripping island thriller directed by Sam Raimi, is projected to lead the charge with a $25 million global debut. Starring Dylan O’Brien as a privileged tech CEO and Rachel McAdams as his underestimated office accountant, the film flips the script when the two are stranded on a deserted island—and she’s the one with survival skills. With a 94% Certified Fresh rating and a strong international rollout, Send Help could be the underdog that finally knocks Avatar off its pedestal. But here’s where it gets controversial: Can a genre film with such a unique dynamic truly resonate with audiences worldwide, or will it fall short of expectations? Let’s dive in.
Send Help is set to open in 3,400 North American theaters, targeting $15 million domestically, with an additional $10 million from international markets. Its offshore strategy is strategic, avoiding direct competition by staggering releases in the UK and France. The film’s genre appeal could win over European and Latin American audiences, with comparisons drawn to Don’t Breathe and Evil Dead Rise. Previews begin at 2 PM, with early sneaks in 500 locations—many of which are recovering from last weekend’s storm. Interestingly, the film’s strongest demographic is men under 25, a group that could propel it to success.
And this is the part most people miss: While Send Help is the frontrunner, two other films could surprise everyone. First, there’s Iron Lung, a self-financed, self-distributed feature by YouTuber Markiplier, based on the popular video game. Booked in 3,105 theaters across the U.S. and Canada, with over 1,000 locations in Australia, New Zealand, and Europe, the film has already racked up $6 million in presales, pointing to a $9–$10 million opening. But can it appeal beyond its loyal fanbase? With a thrifty marketing campaign and fan screenings, it’s a wild card worth watching. Like Send Help, it’s rated R and skews toward viewers under 25.
Then there’s Shelter, Black Bear’s action-packed thriller starring Jason Statham, aiming for $5–$7 million at 2,726 locations. Directed by Ric Roman Waugh, the film follows a recluse on a remote Scottish island who rescues a girl, only to face a dangerous reckoning with his past. Previews start Thursday at 10:45 AM, targeting men over 25.
But here’s the real wildcard: Amazon MGM Studios’ Melania, a $40 million documentary about the former First Lady, is gaining traction with $1 million in presales, hinting at a $5 million-plus debut at 1,500 sites. Directed by Brett Ratner, the film focuses on the 20 days leading up to the 2025 inauguration. Controversial question: Is this a niche documentary for right-wing audiences, or could it surprise with broader appeal? Comparisons to Am I Racist and Sound of Freedom suggest it’ll overindex in conservative hubs like Houston and Orlando, but its success hinges on geo-centric audiences. And unlike other right-wing films, there’s no evidence of bulk ticket purchases by MAGA groups—yet.
Rounding out the weekend is Paris Hilton’s documentary Infinite Icon: A Visual Memoir, opening in 677 locations. With such a diverse slate, this weekend’s box office is anyone’s game. What do you think? Will Send Help dethrone Avatar? Can Iron Lung or Melania defy expectations? Let us know in the comments—we’re all ears!
