The housing crisis in the United States is forcing Americans to make a devastating choice between affordability and safety. With the backdrop of climate change, the situation is becoming increasingly dire. As a professor of urban planning, I see this as a systemic issue that needs addressing. The numbers are stark: California, which lost 239,575 residents in 2024, is facing a housing affordability crisis. The median home price in California is more than double the national median, making it unaffordable for many. This has led to a mass exodus, with residents moving to more affordable states like Texas, which saw a net gain of 85,267 people in 2024. But this isn't just about lower taxes; it's about the housing affordability crisis. The income needed to qualify for a mortgage on a mid-tier California home is over twice the state's median household income. Over 21 million renter households nationwide spent more than 30% of their income on housing costs in 2023. This is creating a situation where income determines exposure to climate disasters. When housing becomes unaffordable in safer areas, people are forced to move to riskier locations, such as low-lying areas at flood risk in Houston and coastal Texas, or higher-wildfire-risk areas as California cities expand into fire-prone foothills and canyons. This is troubling, as research shows that high-fire-risk counties saw a significant influx of people in 2023, and vulnerable communities face barriers to rebuilding after disasters. The insurance crisis in these destination states is another concern, with insurers collapsing due to mounting claims from increasingly severe disasters. Yet, people continue to move into risky areas, drawn by the availability and cost of housing. This isn't a matter of individual choice but a policy failure. The state of California aims to build 2.5 million new homes by 2030, but in 2024, it only added about 100,000, falling short of the needed supply. Local governments' exclusionary zoning practices are pricing out working families and pushing them toward risk. My research on disaster recovery highlights the intersection of housing policies and climate vulnerability. Communities with limited housing options before disasters become even more constrained afterward. The federal government has started recognizing this connection, encouraging communities to consider 'social vulnerability' in disaster planning, but this move has been recently retracted. Until decision-makers address the underlying policies that create housing scarcity in safe areas and fail to protect people in vulnerable ones, climate change will continue to reshape who gets to live where and who gets left behind when the next disaster strikes.
